The using of the method of complex diagnosis and forecast of strong convecational structures over the territory of the Republic of Belarus for the summer period 2018
Abstract
In the present study we analyzed the main methods and tools used for identify and predict dangerous convective events such as thunder, rain, hail and so on. The specialty of these event consists of the rapid evolution in time and space. Therefore the timely detection and prediction of these events are still important task. The article gives a brief description of the spatial and temporal distributions of convective phenomena in Belarus. Some complex systems and methods using in the world practice to predict hazardous phenomena were analyzed. The method of complex diagnosis and forecasting of severe convective structures was observed. The method is based on using of numerical model data with high spatial resolution and remote sensing data. The study period covered the time interval summer period of 2018. For verification radar and weather station data were used. The results showed that the method has more accuracy for severe convective structures, such as the mesoscale convective complexes and another mesoscale convective systems. Sometimes, in zones of active cyclones, along fronts, presumably in areas of large-scale removal of water vapor to the upper layers of the troposphere, there may be cases of false detection of areas of powerful convection. In this regard, to mask these false zones, an additional parameter was introduced into the methodology – the lifted index (one of convective instability index).
About the Authors
M. I. Procharenya
Belarusian State University, Minsk
Belarus
Belarus
A. A. Sprygin
Central Aerological Observatory, Dolgoprudny
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
1. Юсупов, Ю. И. Наукастинг в технологии ГИС Метео / Ю. И. Юсупов // МЕТЕОСПЕКТР. – 2015. – № 1. – C. 43–49.
2. Наставление по Глобальной системе обработки данных и прогнозирования Дополнение IV к Техническому регламенту ВМО [Электронный ресурс] // World meteorological organization. — Режим доступа: https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=4248. – Дата доступа: 03.11.2018.
3. Руководство по краткосрочным прогнозам погоды / под ред. С. Л. Белоусова, А. А. Васильева, Н. Ф. Вельтищева и др. – Л.: Гидрометеоиздат, 1986. – Ч. 1. – 704 с.
4. Логинов, В. Ф. Изменение числа дней с грозами на территории Беларуси / В. Ф. Логинов, А. А. Волчек, И. Н. Шпока // Природопользование. Сб. науч. тр. – 2006. – Вып. 12. – С. 33–40.
5. Хромов, С. П. Метеорологический словарь / С. П. Хромов, Л. И. Мамонтова. – Л.: Гидрометеоиздат, 1974. – 568 с.
6. Логинов, В. Ф. Опасные метеорологические явления на территории Беларуси / В. Ф. Логинов, А. А. Волчек, И. Н. Шпока. – Минск. – 2010. – 128 с.
7. European Severe Weather Database [Electronic resource]// European Severe Storms Laboratory. – Режим доступа: http://www.eswd.eu/cgi-bin/eswd.cgi. – Date of access: 21.10.2018.
8. NWC SAF Convection products. [Electronic resource] // Nowcasting SAF. – Режим доступа: http://wsn16.hk/doc/presentation/25Jul2016/M3/[M3]M3_NWCSAFConvectionProducts.pdf – Date of access: 04.11.2018.
9. METCAP+ : IMPORTANCE OF ANALYSING OBSERVATIONS, SATELLITE DAT A, SAF PRODUCTS, NUMERICAL WEATHER FORECASTS ON THE SAME SCREEN [Electronic resource]. – Режим доступа: https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/IMOP/publications/IOM-109_TECO-2012/Session5/P5_05_Dokuyucu_METCAP_plus.pdf/ – Date of access: 04.11.2018.
10. Divergence. [Electronic resource] // Eumetrain. – Режим доступа: http://www.eumetrain.org/satmanu/Basic/Parameters/navmenu.php?page=2.0.0 – Date of access: 04.11.2018.
11. NEFODINA: A TOOL FOR AUTOMATIC DETECTION OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE PHENOMENA [Electronic resource] // Meteoam. – Режим доступа: http://www.meteoam.it/sites/all/files/nefodina.pdf – Date of access: 04.11.2018.
12. A method for convective storm detection using satellite data / C. Pinta da Silva Neto at al. – Atmósfera. 2016. – Vol. 29. – № 4. – P. 343–358.
13. EUMETSAT [Electronic resource] // Eoportal. – Режим доступа: https://eoportal.eumetsat.int/userMgmt/login.faces – Date of access: 04.11.2018.
14. Meteoinfo.by [Электронный ресурс] // Белорусский сервер погоды. – Режим доступа: http://meteoinfo.by/radar/?q=UMMN/ – Дата доступа: 13.07.2018.
15. Ncep Central Operations [Electronic resource] // Nomads. – Режим доступа: http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/ – Date of access: 13.07.2018.
Review
For citations:
Procharenya M.I., Sprygin A.A. The using of the method of complex diagnosis and forecast of strong convecational structures over the territory of the Republic of Belarus for the summer period 2018. Natural resources. 2019;(1):96-107. (In Russ.)
Views: 6843
Email this article 