The using of the method of complex diagnosis and forecast of strong convecational structures over the territory of the Republic of Belarus for the summer period 2018
Abstract
In the present study we analyzed the main methods and tools used for identify and predict dangerous convective events such as thunder, rain, hail and so on. The specialty of these event consists of the rapid evolution in time and space. Therefore the timely detection and prediction of these events are still important task. The article gives a brief description of the spatial and temporal distributions of convective phenomena in Belarus. Some complex systems and methods using in the world practice to predict hazardous phenomena were analyzed. The method of complex diagnosis and forecasting of severe convective structures was observed. The method is based on using of numerical model data with high spatial resolution and remote sensing data. The study period covered the time interval summer period of 2018. For verification radar and weather station data were used. The results showed that the method has more accuracy for severe convective structures, such as the mesoscale convective complexes and another mesoscale convective systems. Sometimes, in zones of active cyclones, along fronts, presumably in areas of large-scale removal of water vapor to the upper layers of the troposphere, there may be cases of false detection of areas of powerful convection. In this regard, to mask these false zones, an additional parameter was introduced into the methodology – the lifted index (one of convective instability index).
About the Authors
M. I. Procharenya
Belarusian State University, Minsk
Belarus
Belarus
A. A. Sprygin
Central Aerological Observatory, Dolgoprudny
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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For citations:
Procharenya M.I., Sprygin A.A. The using of the method of complex diagnosis and forecast of strong convecational structures over the territory of the Republic of Belarus for the summer period 2018. Natural resources. 2019;(1):96-107. (In Russ.)
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