On the possibilities of forecasting the state of the ozone layer

The quality of the forecast of the state of the ozone layer over various regions of the Nothern Hemisphere is analyzed, taking into account observations in recent years. The forecast was obtained using the concept of a dynamic climate norm and a model of a quadratic long­term trend of the total ozone content based on satellite observations for the period 1978–2017. The predicted values of the long­term trend of the total ozone content (TOC) are compared with the results of calculating the trend based on the data for the period that includes the forecast area. An improved third­degree polynomial trend model was used to better match the expected behavior of stratospheric ozone. Long­term trends in both models practically coincide within the pre­ viously used period, however, the forecast for the period 2018–2022 not justified in all cases. The reasons for the discrepancy and possible ways to improve the forecast are analyzed.

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